中国生产性服务贸易对货物价格贸易条件的影响研究——基于Burgess模型的实证分析

Research on the Influence of China's Productive Service Trade on the Terms of Trade of Goods Prices——An empirical test based on burgess model

价格贸易条件的改善对于增加我国贸易利益、增强经济实力、提高国际地位具有重要意义。当今全球服务贸易迅猛发展,我国生产性服务贸易规模也持续扩大。根据Burgess模型,服务贸易自由化可能会恶化进口国的贸易条件。本文对我国生产性服务业与货物价格贸易条件之间的关系进行实证分析,结果表明:生产性服务贸易逆差缩小将提高我国货物价格贸易条件指数,符合Burgess模型的结论,且这种影响在滞后第三期达到最大,随后开始减小。基于此,应积极鼓励生产性服务贸易出口,优化生产性服务贸易进口结构,改善我国价格贸易条件,增加贸易利益,实现我国贸易大国向贸易强国的转变。

The improvement of the terms of trade is of great significance to increasing our trade interests,strengthening our economic strength and enhancing our international status.Nowadays the global service trade develops rapidly and the scale of producer service trade also expands continuously.According to the Burgess model,liberalization of trade in services may worsen importing countries'terms of trade.This paper analyzes the relationship between producer service industry and the terms of trade of goods price.The results show that the reduction of producer service trade deficit will increase the terms of trade index of the price of goods,in line with the conclusion of Burgess model,and this negative impact reaches the maximum in the third lag period,and then begins to decrease.Therefore,we should actively encourage the export of producer service trade,optimize the import structure of producer service trade,improve the terms of trade in price and increase trade benefits.