我国生育政策调整下劳动力供给规模趋势预测分析

Prediction and Analysis of the Trend of China's Labor Supply Scale under the Adjustment of Fertility Policy

优化生育政策有利于改善人口结构,保持合理劳动力供给规模,促进经济高质量发展。本文借助人口年龄移算预测模型,综合考虑我国历次人口普查数据、联合国《世界人口展望》和发达国家生育率变化趋势设置预测参数,预测生育政策调整下我国劳动力供给规模变化趋势。结果发现:无论是否进行生育政策调整,我国未来劳动力规模整体将呈现下降趋势;受法定劳务年龄限制,生育政策调整后将增加2036年后劳动力供给,减缓劳动力规模下降速度。据此,应从完善生育保障政策制度、优化生育服务配套措施等方面出发,提升生育政策实施成效。

Optimizing fertility policies is beneficial for improving population structure,maintaining a reasonable scale of labor supply,and promoting high-quality economic development.This article uses a population age shift prediction model to comprehensively consider China's previous population census data,the United Nations'World Population Outlook,and the trend of fertility changes in developed countries to set prediction parameters and predict the trend of changes in China's labor supply scale under the adjustment of fertility policies.The results showed that regardless of whether the fertility policy adjustment is carried out,the overall labor force size in China will show a downward trend in the future;Due to the legal age limit for labor services,the adjustment of the maternity policy will increase the labor supply after 2036 and slow down the decline in labor size.Based on this,we should start from improving the maternity security policy system and optimizing supporting measures for maternity services to enhance the effectiveness of the implementation of maternity policies.