全球经济不确定性对中国大豆进口贸易影响研究——基于保障中国大豆供给安全视角的分析

A Study about the Impact of Global Economic Uncertainty on China’s Soybean Import Trade——An Analysis Based on protecting the Security of Soybean Supply in China

大豆进口贸易对保障中国大豆产业具有重要作用。本文通过建立SVAR模型和中介效应进行实证研究,分析了2003年1月至2020年9月全球经济不确定性对中国大豆进口贸易的影响,结果表明:(1)全球经济不确定性对中国大豆进口贸易的传导效应显著,其正向冲击会造成大豆进口量上升,对大豆进口量的贡献率约为14.65%左右;(2)基于中介效应分析发现,全球经济不确定性对中国大豆进口贸易的间接效应大于直接效应。其中,国际大豆价格的中介效应存在遮掩效应,中国大豆进口价格的中介效应占比为19.91%,国内大豆价格的中介效应占比为52.34%。

Soybean import trade plays an important role in protecting China’s soybean industry.Based on the monthly data from January of 2003 to September of 2019,this paper analyzes the impact of global economic uncertainty on China’s soybean import trade by establishing SVAR model and mediating effect.The results show that:(1)The global economic uncertainty has a significant transmission effect on China’s soybean import trade,and its positive impact will lead to an increase in soybean import,the contribution rate to soybean import is about14.65%;(2)Based on the analysis of the mediating effect,it is found that the indirect effect of global economic uncertainty on China’s soybean import trade is greater than the direct effect,the mediating effect of international soybean price has a masking effect,the mediating effect of Chinese soybean import price is 19.91%,and that of domestic soybean price is 52.34%.