当前美国通胀成因、影响及未来走势的研究

The Causes, Effects and Future Trends of Current American Inflation

2021年上半年,美国居民消费领域与生产领域出现全面通货膨胀,同时通胀预期明显抬升,带动美国10年期国债收益率加速上行。本文分析了当前美国通胀的形势与成因,得出当前通胀持续抬升成为既定事实,但未来通胀走势仍存在较大不确定性。一方面,由于基数效应、供需基本面未显著改善、国际大宗商品价格趋于见顶等阻碍因素,另一方面由于经济景气回暖、宏观政策总基调不变、通胀预期显著抬升、全球经济复苏不平衡等支撑因素,并且还存在疫情未来走势和美联储政策拐点时机等不确定性因素。美国通胀不但加剧了本国经济运行风险,也对全球经济具有较大负外部性。基于此,本文提出提高货币政策自主性、防范债务风险和资产价格风险等对中国后疫情与"十四五"时期经济高质量发展的启示。

In the first half of 2021,the US household consumption and production sectors of the overall inflation,while inflation expectations significantly increased,driving the US 10-year Treasury yields to accelerate the upward trend.This paper analyzes the current situation and causes of inflation in the United States,and concludes that the current sustained rise of inflation has become an established fact,but the future trend of inflation is still largely uncertain.On the one hand,due to the base effect,the lack of significant improvement in the fundamentals of supply and demand,and the tendency of international commodity prices to peak and other obstacles,On the other hand,due to the economic recovery,the general tone of macro policy unchanged,inflation expectations significantly increased,the global economic recovery and other supporting factors,and there are also uncertain factors such as the future trend of the epidemic and the timing of the Fed’s policy inflection point.Inflation in the United States not only aggravates the risk of its own economic operation,but also has a large negative externality to the global economy.Based on this,this paper puts forward the enlightenment of improving the autonomy of monetary policy,preventing debt risk and asset price risk for China’s post-epidemic and high-quality economic development in the period of the 14 th Five-Year Plan.