新建商品住宅估价影响因素研究——以深圳市为例

Research on influencing factors of new commercial residential house valuation——Take Shenzhen as an example

为研究适用于特定地区新建商品住宅价格的估价模型,本文结合特征价格模型与空间杜宾模型,以深圳市2020年9月新建商品住宅房套均价格作为定价基础,从传统的住宅特征价格影响因素以及深圳地区住宅房产特有的空间相关性指标入手,建立评估日的定价模型,并从建筑、区位、邻里三个特征方面,进一步分解特征因素的空间直接效应与间接效应。结果表明:深圳市区新建商品住宅间存在高度的空间相关性,此类房产价值不仅受到房产自身特征因素的影响(直接效应),同时还受到周边住宅估价的影响(间接效应);区位特征对于住宅估价本身的直接影响最为显著,而邻里特征对周边住宅估价的影响更明显。所以,在估价时除了应当加入空间关联性,还应当考虑特征价格因素间直接效应、间接效应的共同影响,以提高新建商品住宅定价的精确程度。

In order to study the price evaluation model of new commercial housing in specific areas,this paper combines the characteristic price model with the spatial Dubin model.Using the average price of new commercial residential houses in Shenzhen in September 2020 is taken as the pricing basis from traditional residential houses.Based on the characteristic price factors and the special spatial correlation of shenzhen residential real estate,the pricing model of appraisal day is established.I decompose the spatial direct effect and indirect effect of characteristic factors from three aspects with building,location and neighborhood.The results of it shows that there is a high spatial correlation between the new commercial residential buildings in Shenzhen,and the value of such housing is not only influenced by the property characteristics factors(direct effect),but also by the surrounding residential valuation(indirect effect);Location characteristics for residential valuation.The direct effect of itself is the most significant,and the effect of neighborhood characteristics on the surrounding residential valuation is more obvious.Therefore,in addition to adding spatial correlation,the common influence of direct and indirect effects among characteristic price factors should also be taken into account in the evaluation,in order to improve newly built commodities The degree of accuracy of residential pricing.