跨境资本流动与货币政策有效性

Cross-border capital flows and the effectiveness of monetary policy

基于跨境资本流动的不确定性风险和货币政策对于我国宏观调控的重要性,本文深入探讨了跨国资本流动对货币政策效果的影响机制,构建了货币政策的产出方程和价格方程,并通过加入多阶滞后变量对比回归结果,发现跨境资本流动会对货币政策有效性产生影响。本文建议:建立完善的跨境资本流动监督体系,提高货币政策传导效率,以及加强外汇形势检测评估等,来防范跨境资本流动对货币政策的影响。

Based on the uncertainty risk of cross-border capital flows and the importance of monetary policy to my country’s macro-control,this article discusses in depth the influence mechanism of cross-border capital flows on the effect of monetary policy,and constructs the output equation and price equation of monetary policy And by adding multi-stage lag variables to compare the regression results,it is concluded that cross-border capital flows will weaken the effectiveness of monetary policy.This article recommends:Establish a monitoring and early warning and crisis protection mechanism for cross-border capital flows,improve the efficiency of monetary policy transmission,and enrich monetary policy sterilization tools to prevent cross-border capital flows from weakening monetary policy.