长期护理保险政策促进劳动就业效应研究——来自11个试点城市的经验数据

Research on the effect of long-term care insurance policy in promoting employment——Empirical data from 11 pilot cities

长期护理保险政策的基本目标是为失能人群提供护理服务,缓解家庭照料压力,保障受护理者家人能正常参与就业。在人口老龄化和人口红利消减的背景下,探究长期护理保险政策对劳动就业的影响,这不仅有利于社会保障的完善,也有利于未来劳动力市场建设。本文基于2010-2019年的44个城市面板数据,借助长期护理保险政策试点这一准自然实验,利用多期DID首次量化评估长期护理保险政策对劳动就业的影响。研究表明:长期护理保险政策对劳动就业有显著正向促进效应。此外,长期护理保险政策对劳动就业的影响还存在显著的异质性特征,东部和西部试点的劳动就业提升效果明显高于中部试点,大规模人口试点其劳动就业提升效果几乎是中等规模试点的两倍多。对其影响机制分析表明:长期护理保险政策不仅可以显著提升个体工作意愿、降低提前退休的概率,还可以通过改善个体健康水平,从而增加劳动就业。

The basic goal of the long-term care insurance policy is to provide nursing services for the disabled,ease the pressure of family care,and ensure that the families of care recipients can participate in employment normally.In the context of population aging and demographic dividend reduction,exploring the impact of long-term care insurance policies on labor employment is not only conducive to the improvement of social security,but also conducive to the construction of the future labor market.Based on the panel data of 44 cities from 2010 to 2019,this paper uses the quasi-natural experiment of the long-term care insurance policy pilot to quantitatively evaluate the impact of long-term care insurance policies on labor employment using multi-period DID.Studies have shown that long-term care insurance policies have a significant positive effect on labor employment.In addition,the impact of long-term care insurance policies on labor employment has significant heterogeneity.The labor employment improvement effect of the eastern and western pilots is significantly higher than that of the central pilots.The large-scale population pilots have almost the same labor employment improvement effects as the medium-scale pilots.More than twice.The analysis of its impact mechanism shows that long-term care insurance policies can not only significantly increase the individual’s willingness to work and reduce the probability of early retirement,but also increase employment by improving the individual’s health.