碳中和目标下中国能源转型框架路线图探讨

Discussion on the roadmap of China’s energy transition framework under the goal of carbon neutrality

为实现碳中和目标需要最终构建近零碳排放能源体系。本文从能源消费总量和结构两个维度对满足碳达峰、碳中和要求的中国能源转型进行情景分析,探讨中国能源转型框架路线图。研究结果表明:在2050年能源消费总量50亿吨、非化石能源消费比重80%的低能耗-高比重情境下,能源消费二氧化碳排放量可以减少到20亿吨左右;在2050年能源消费总量55亿吨、非化石能源消费比重75%的高能耗-低比重情境下,能源消费二氧化碳排放量可以减少到30亿吨左右。

In order to achieve the goal of carbon neutrality,it is necessary to finally build a near-zero carbon emission energy system.This article conducts a scenario analysis of China’s energy transition to meet the carbon peak and carbon neutral requirements from the two dimensions of total energy consumption and structure,and discusses the road map of China’s energy transition framework.The research results show that in the low-energy-high proportion scenario where the total energy consumption is 5 billion tons in 2050 and the proportion of non-fossil energy consumption is 80%,the carbon dioxide emissions of energy consumption can be reduced to about 2 billion tons;the total energy consumption in 2050 Under the high-energy-low-proportion scenario with a volume of 5.5 billion tons and 75%of non-fossil energy consumption,carbon dioxide emissions from energy consumption can be reduced to about 3 billion tons.