全球重大公共卫生突发事件对国际油价变动的影响研究

Research on the Impact of Global Major Public Health Emergencies on International Oil Prices

2020年暴发的新冠疫情导致国际油价剧烈波动。为探寻重大公共卫生突发事件对石油市场冲击影响的规律性,提升我国企业风险应对能力,本文以世界卫生组织(WHO)界定的六次国际公共卫生紧急事件(PHEIC)为研究对象,对上述六次重大公共卫生突发事件与国际油价变动之间的逻辑关系进行推演,基于2009-2020年的月度数据,使用PPM模型对六次重大公共卫生突发事件发生期间的国际油价走势进行突变点识别与突变概率测算。结果表明:短期而言,六次重大公共卫生突发事件均对国际油价的日内走势形成冲击;中长期而言,包括甲型H1N1流感病毒疫情、埃博拉病毒疫情、塞卡病毒疫情和新冠肺炎疫情共四次重大公共卫生突发事件对国际油价走势造成影响。基于研究结论提出:进一步完善国家层面的重大疫情风险预警系统,强化对国际原油价格监测,提升企业疫情风险管理能力。

The outbreak of COVID-19 in 2020 led to sharp fluctuations in international oil prices.In order to explore the regularity of the impact of major public health emergencies on the oil market,and to enhance the risk response capabilities of Chinese enterprises,this research takes the six major public health emergencies(PHEIC)defined by the World Health Organization(WHO)as the research object,and deduces the logical relationship between the above six major public health emergencies and changes in international oil prices.Based on the monthly data of 2009-2020,this research uses the PPM model to identify the mutation point of the international oil price trend during the six major public health emergencies,and estimates the probability of the mutation.The results show that:in the short term,all six major public health emergencies have had an impact on the intraday trend of international oil prices;In the medium and long term,four major public health emergencies-influenza A(H1 N1),Ebola,Zika virus,and new crown pneumonia-have affected the trend of international oil prices.Based on the research conclusions,it is proposed to further improve the national-level early warning system for major epidemic risks,strengthen the monitoring of international crude oil prices,and improve the epidemic risk management ability of enterprises.