我国生猪市场区制转换与产业链价格关联研究

Study on the relationship between the regional transformation of pig market and the price of industrial chain in China

生猪市场稳定健康发展与"三农"息息相关。本文选取2007年1月至2021年5月生猪产业链价格和生猪疫情月度数据,运用MS-VAR模型实证研究动物疫情影响下我国生猪产业链间价格关联关系。研究结果表明:动物疫情的暴发会导致生猪市场价格在高波动区制和低波动区制两种状态下转换,且两种区制状态平均持续期分别为3.12个月、12.49个月;不同区制状态下生猪产业链价格传导呈现明显非对称性,高波动区制状态下的生猪产业链价格相关性较高,仔猪价格受疫情影响最大,白条肉价格受疫情影响最小。据此,本文提出在突发重大动物疫情背景下规范生猪养殖体系、建立价格预警机制和健全生猪产业保险的政策建议。

The stable and healthy development of pig market is closely related to"agriculture,rural areas and farmers".This paper selects the monthly data of pig industry chain price and pig epidemic from January 2007 to may 2021,and uses MS-VAR model to empirically study the price correlation between China’s pig industry chains under the influence of animal epidemic.The results show that the outbreak of animal epidemic will lead to the transformation of pig market price in high fluctuation area and low fluctuation area,and the average duration of the two areas is 3.12 months and 12.49 months respectively;The price transmission of pig industry chain under different district systems shows obvious asymmetry.The price correlation of pig industry chain under high fluctuation district system is high.The price of piglets is the most affected by the epidemic,and the price of white striped meat is the least affected by the epidemic.Therefore,this paper puts forward policy suggestions on standardizing pig breeding system,establishing price early warning mechanism and perfecting pig industry insurance under the background of sudden major animal epidemic.