共建“一带一路”对海洋经济增长的影响机制研究

Research on the Impact Mechanism of the Joint Construction of "the Belt and Road " on Marine Economic Growth

共建"一带一路"为海洋经济发展带来新机遇,对推动构建全球海洋命运共同体具有重要意义。本文基于2007-2018年沿海11省市的面板数据,利用双重差分法实证检验了共建"一带一路"对海洋经济增长的影响以及作用机制。研究发现:共建"一带一路"对海洋经济增长尤其二、三产业经济增长具有促进作用,在一系列稳定性检验后结论依然成立,且共建"一带一路"通过提高沿海省市FDI促进海洋经济增长的中介效应显著。该效应主要体现在海洋第三产业经济增长方面,而通过OFDI影响海洋经济增长的中介效应尚不显著。为更好地推动我国海洋经济发展,应依托共建"一带一路"推进陆海统筹、海洋产业结构优化升级以及海洋命运共同体的构建。

"The Belt and Road"initiative has brought many new opportunities to the marine economy.The joint construction of t"the Belt and Road"is of great significance to promote the global maritime community with a shared future and the construction of my country’s maritime power.Based on the panel data of 11 coastal provinces and cities from 2007 to 2018,this paper regards"the Belt and Road"initiative as a quasi-natural experiment,and uses the double difference method to empirically test the impact of"the Belt and Road"initiative on marine economic growth and its mechanism.The research found that"the Belt and Road"initiative promotes marine economic growth as well as the economic growth of the secondary and tertiary industries.After a series of stability tests,the conclusion is still established."The Belt and Road"initiative promotes the marine economy by increasing FDI in coastal provinces and cities.The mediating effect of growth is significant,and this effect is mainly reflected in the economic growth of the marine tertiary industry,while the mediating effect of OFDI affecting marine economic growth is not yet significant.In order to better promote the development of my country’s marine economy,we should rely on the construction of"the Belt and Road"to promote land-sea coordination;rely on the construction of"the Belt and Road"to promote the optimization and upgrading of the marine industry structure;rely on the construction of"the Belt and Road"to promote the sustainable development of the marine economy.