养老目标基金默认选择策略研究

Research on the Default Selection Strategy of Pension Target Fund

养老目标基金已成为个人养老金投资的重要选择。在我国,养老目标基金发展速度快、居民接纳程度高,有望成为第三支柱养老保险的重要投资工具。但我国养老金市场建设起步较晚,需加强大样本的本土调研,以形成适配的养老目标基金默认选择产品方案。本文首先总结了养老金投资与养老目标基金默认选择的境外经验,然后通过26932份问卷调查,对我国养老投资者的风险偏好和需求特征进行统计分析。在此基础上,再根据投资者的实际需求设计养老目标基金的产品方案,并通过两种不同初始权益比例的目标日期基金和两种不同风险敞口的目标风险基金,进行1997-2019年我国资本市场的实际模拟,研究养老目标基金默认选择产品的最优备选方案。研究发现:目标风险基金与我国养老投资者较为适配,情景一的方案在所有模拟策略中表现最优,可以作为我国养老目标基金默认选择产品的参考样本,为规范发展第三支柱养老保险助力。

The pension target fund has become an essential choice for personal pension investment.In China,the rapid development of pension target funds and the high degree of acceptance by residents are expected to become a vital investment tool for the third pillar of pension insurance.However,the construction of China’s pension market started relatively late,and it is necessary to strengthen local research on a large sample to form a suitable pension target fund to select product solutions by default.This article first summarizes the overseas experience of the default selection of pension investment and pension target funds.Through 26,932 questionnaire surveys,statistical analysis was carried out on the risk appetite and demand characteristics of Chinese pension investors.On this basis,the product plan of the pension target fund is designed according to the actual needs of investors.This paper uses two target-date funds with different initial equity ratios and two target-risk funds with different risk exposures to conduct actual simulations of the Chinese capital market from 1997 to 2019,so as to study the best alternatives for the default selection of pension target funds.The study found that:the target risk fund is more suitable for Chinese pension investors,and the scenario 1 scheme performs best among all simulation strategies.It can be used as a reference sample for the default selection of products for the Chinese pension target fund,and contributes to the standardized development of the third pillar pension insurance.