货币宽松与商品价格关系的初步研究

A preliminary study on the relationship between monetary easing and commodity prices

近段时间以来,全球大宗商品价格出现了大幅度上涨,其背后的原因值得深入分析,以便为合理控制大宗商品涨幅、促进实体经济发展提供有益参考。从历史情况来看,极度宽松的货币政策是导致商品价格大幅度上涨的原因之一,但并非充分条件。大宗商品需求从发达国家转向发展中国家,也是导致发达国家货币政策效果减弱的重要原因。通过对美国、日本施行宽松货币政策的影响进行分析,我们认为,极端宽松货币政策要推动大宗商品价格上涨,进而推高通胀,需要满足两个条件:(1)增加的基础货币传导至实体经济而非沉积在金融体系内;(2)货币政策同步伴随需求复苏,或者基础货币流入实体经济推动需求复苏,推动供需失调加剧。

In recent times,global commodity prices have risen sharply.The reasons behind it are worthy of in-depth analysis in order to provide a useful reference for rationally controlling the growth of commodities and promoting the development of the real economy.From the historical point of view,the extremely loose monetary policy is one of the reasons for the substantial increase in commodity prices,but it is not a sufficient condition.The shift in demand for bulk commodities from developed countries to developing countries is also an important reason for the weakening of the monetary policies of developed countries.By analyzing the impact of loose monetary policies in the United States,Japan,and China,we believe that the extremely loose monetary policy will promote the rise of commodity prices and thus increase inflation.Two conditions need to be met:(1)The increased base currency is transmitted to The real economy is not deposited in the financial system;(2)Monetary policy is accompanied by demand recovery,or the inflow of base currency into the real economy promotes demand recovery and promotes an increase in supply and demand imbalance.