关于我国不会出现过度通胀的思考

An Analysis on China’s Current Inflation Trend

2021年初,随着生产端上游成本价格抬高、美债收益率大幅提升等,引起了人们对于我国是否会出现过度通胀的担忧。本文认为,2021年初物价水平的温和上涨主要由大宗商品价格提高导致的成本端价格抬高推动,但由于下游需求仍旧尚未恢复至新冠疫情前状态、成本抬高对总体物价水平的抬升有限、资本品价格涨幅高于消费品价格涨幅且长期持续的可能有限以及我国宏观经济调控政策弹性较大等因素,因此我国并不会出现"过度通胀"。但我国依然要在宏观经济调控政策制定上防范金融风险和资产泡沫,加强金融系统对实体经济的服务功能,加强宏观经济调控政策的结构性调整。

At the beginning of 2021,with the rise of upstream cost prices on the production side and the sharp increase in U.S.bond yields,people are worried about whether there will be excessive inflation in China.We think that the moderate increase in the price level in early 2021 was mainly driven by the increase in the cost-end price caused by the increase in commodity prices,but China will not experience"excessive inflation"because of the following reasons.Firstly,the downstream demand has not yet returned to the state before the COVID-2019 epidemic.Secondly,the increase in cost has limited the increase in the overall price level.Thirdly,the price increase of capital goods is higher than that of consumer goods without the long-term sustainability.Fourthly,China’s macroeconomic control policies are relatively flexible.However,China still needs to prevent financial risks and asset bubbles in the formulation of macroeconomic control policies,strengthen the service function of the financial system to the real economy,and strengthen the structural adjustment of macroeconomic control policies.