实物期权理论下变电站工程分期建设投资决策研究

Research on Investment Decision of Substation Project Phased Construction Based on Real Options Theory

根据电网项目提质增效和精准投资的新要求,统筹考虑变电站项目建设的特点,本文引入实物期权理论,构建实物期权无风险利率测算模型和变电站工程分期建设投资决策模型,提出变电站分期建设投资阈值的确定方法,优化变电站分期建设和投资决策。并以某地110kV变电站建设项目投资决策为例,对所建模型方法进行了实际应用。研究结果表明:所创建的投资决策模型可有效应用于优化变电工程分期建设投资时序,为变电工程分期建设投资科学决策提供新型工具。

According to the new requirements of improving the quality and efficiency of power grid projects and precision investment,and considering the characteristics of substation project construction,this paper introduces real option theory,constructs real option risk-free interest rate calculation model and substation project phased construction investment decision model,and proposes substation The method for determining the investment threshold of the phased construction optimizes the phased construction and investment decision-making of the substation.Taking the investment decision of a 110 kV substation construction project in a certain place as an example,the established model method was applied in practice.The research results show that the investment decision model created can be effectively applied to optimize the phased construction investment sequence of substation projects,and provide a new tool for scientific decision-making on phased construction investment of substation projects.