房价异常波动与防范系统性金融风险关系的理论研究

Theoretical Research on the Relationship between Abnormal Price Fluctuations and Preventing Systemic Financial Risks

房地产是现阶段我国金融风险方面最大的"灰犀牛",必须加强房地产金融调控,防范系统性金融风险。本文首先从家庭、企业、金融和地方政府四类参与主体入手,分析房价异常波动对系统性金融风险的传导路径。然后,基于我国2010-2020年的季度时间序列数据,构建交互效应模型和中介效应模型,研究家庭、企业、金融和地方政府等参与主体在房价异常波动对系统性金融风险潜在影响中的中介作用。实证结果表明:从总体效果看,房价上涨会显著增加系统性金融风险;从传导路径看,房价上涨会带动家庭杠杆、企业杠杆、金融杠杆和地方政府信用杠杆上升,金融杠杆、企业杠杆、地方政府信用杠杆和家庭杠杆的中介作用依次递减。最后,本文提出促进房地产市场平稳健康发展、防范系统性金融风险的建议。

The real estate sector is the"grey rhinoceros"of financial risks.We must strengthen financial regulation on the real estate to guard against the systemic financial risk.Firstly,this paper analyzes the transmission mechanism of abnormal fluctuation of house price to the systemic financial risk from the four types of participants:family,enterprise,financial institutions and local government.Then,based on the quarterly time series data of China from 2010 to 2020,this paper constructs interaction effect model and mediating effect model to study the mediating role of family,enterprises,financial institutions and local government in the potential impact of abnormal fluctuation of house price on the systemic financial risk.The empirical results show that from the overall effect,rising house prices can significantly increase the systemic financial risks.From the transmission mechanism,rising house prices can drive rising of family leverage,enterprise leverage,financial leverage and local government leverage.And the mediating role of financial leverage,enterprise leverage,local government leverage and family leverage decreases in turn.Finally,this paper puts forward some suggestions to promote the steady and healthy development of the real estate market and to guard against systemic financial risks.