后疫情时代大宗商品价格发展趋势研究——基于2021年初国际大宗商品价格上涨的原因及对策分析

Research on development trend of commodity price in post-covid-19 era——Analysis of the reasons and countermeasures for the rise of international commodity prices in early 2021

2021年以来,全球新冠疫情逐渐缓和,国际机构连续多次上调全年全球经济增长预期,全球步入后疫情时代。与此同时,国际大宗商品价格也呈现出加快上涨势头,部分品种价格上涨至多年的高位,引发了社会的高度关注。本文比较全面地分析了当前国际大宗商品价格上涨的背景、原因,在总结历次经济危机后的恢复期内大宗商品价格变动特点的基础上,从多个不同角度对后期价格走势作出判断。本文认为,当前大宗商品价格上涨起因于市场的看涨预期。这种预期通过企业补库、市场炒作等市场行为,不断自我强化,最终自我实现。在后疫情时代的经济复苏期内,流动性、市场预期会对大宗商品价格产生重要影响,但实体需求才是大宗商品价格根本的动力源,缺乏实体需求支撑的价格上涨不具有长期性。没有实际需求持续跟进支撑,看涨预期也会出现反转。今后较长时期内,大宗商品价格总体是以震荡运行为主,并不会形成持续上行趋势。

Since the beginning of this year,the global COVID-19 epidemic has gradually eased,and international institutions have continuously revised up the global economic growth forecast for the whole year,and the world has entered the post-epidemic era.At the same time,the prices of international bulk commodities also showed a momentum of accelerating,and the prices of some varieties rose to a multi-year high,causing great social concern.This paper comprehensively analyzes the background and causes of the current rise in international commodity prices,summarizes the characteristics of commodity price changes in the recovery period after previous economic crises,and makes a judgment on the price trend in the later period from different angles.This paper believes that the current rise in commodity prices due to the market’s bullish expectations.This expectation is self-reinforcing and ultimately self-fulfilling through market behaviors such as replenishment of inventory by enterprises and market speculation.During the economic recovery in the post-epidemic era,liquidity and market expectations will have an important impact on commodity prices,but real demand is the fundamental driving force for commodity prices.Without the support of real demand,price increases lack foundation and are not sustainable.Without sustained support from real demand,bullish expectations will also reverse.For a long period of time in the future,commodity prices are mainly volatile,and will not form a sustained upward trend.