人口老龄化、财富效应与房价关系研究

Research on the Relationship between Population Aging, Wealth Effect and Housing Prices

我国老龄化程度不断加深,在一定程度上会对房价产生影响。本文利用2004-2019年30个省市的数据采用中介效应模型,研究发现:人口老龄化虽然整体上看抑制房价上涨,但基于遗产动机对房价上涨起促进作用,而基于无风险资产偏好对房价上涨起抑制作用。人口老龄化对房价影响渠道存在明显的区域异质性,东、西部地区人口老龄化经由遗产动机的中介效应显著大于无风险偏好下的中介效应,中部地区则与之相反。在克服内生性问题的可能影响之后,本文结论依然成立。因此,在进一步完善我国养老保障制度的同时,应进一步建立健全老年金融体系,提高老年家庭的资金配置效率。

The increasing of aging will have an impact on housing prices to a certain extent.The paper adopts the mediation model based on the data of 30 provinces and cities from 2004 to 2019,the results show that:Although the population aging suppresses the rise of housing prices on the whole,the heritage motivation promotes the rise of housing prices,while the risk-free asset preference suppresses the rise of house prices.There is obvious regional heterogeneity in the influence channel of population aging on housing price,the mediating effect of population aging through heritage motivation in the eastern and western regions is significantly greater than that under risk-free preference,while the mediating effect in the central region is on the contrary.The conclusion of this paper is still valid after overcoming the possible influence of endogeneity.Therefore,while further improving endowment insurance system,we should further establish and improve the financial system for the elderly,and improve the fund allocation efficiency of elderly families.