猪肉产业链非对称价格传导机制:门限效应与市场势力

Asymmetric Price Transmission Mechanism of Pork Industry Chain:Threshold Effect and Market Power

研究猪肉产业链价格传导,有利于把握猪肉价格的波动规律。本文采用平滑转换模型对我国猪肉产业链中养殖、屠宰和零售三个关键环节价格之间的传导关系进行研究,结果显示:2010年5月至2020年8月期间,屠宰—养殖、屠宰—零售价格方程的不对称传导程度远大于养殖—屠宰、零售—屠宰价格方程的传导。在不同门限值下,当期活猪价格每上涨1%,则白条猪价格会上涨1.312%;白条猪价格对猪肉零售价格长期呈现非线性传导关系,白条猪价格每上涨1%,猪肉零售价格仅上涨0.863%;猪肉零售价格每上涨1%,则会导致白条猪价格上涨1.338%。在非洲猪瘟时期,白条猪价格每上涨1%,活猪价格仍继续下降0.591%,养殖户在非洲猪瘟中利益受到的损害大于产业链其他环节。白条猪价格非对称传导效应使整个产业链传导关系发生根本性变化,成为产业链价格传导的根源。厘清养殖、屠宰和零售三个环节在猪肉产业链中价格传导的具体影响和作用,以期准确把握猪肉价格波动的规律。

The study on the price transmission of pork industry chain is advantageous to master the fluctuation rule of pork price.This paper employs the smooth transition model to explore the price transmission relationship of the three critical parks in the pork industry chain,which are hog breeding,hog slaughtering and pork retail.The study results indicate that,the asymmetric transmission degrees of the slaughtering-breeding price equation and the slaughtering-retail price equation are more serious than that of the breeding-slaughtering price equation and the retail-slaughtering price equation from May 2010 to August 2020.Under different threshold values,the 1%increase of the hog price leads to the 1.312%increase of the price of scalded and gutted hog in the same period,while the 1%increase of the price of scalded and gutted hog causes only the 0.863%increase of the pork price which means that there is a long term nonlinear transmission relationship of the price of scalded and gutted hog to the pork retail price.Besides,the 1%increase of the pork retail price results in the 1.338%increase of the price of scalded and gutted hog.During the period of African swine fever,however,the 1%increase of the price of scalded and gutted hog brings about the 0.591%decrease of the hog price.This implies that the lost of hog farmers’interests by African swine fever is more serious than that in other parts of the pork industrial chain.Therefore,the asymmetric price transmission effect of the price of scalded and gutted hog leads to the transmission relationship of the whole industrial chain change fundamentally and becomes the root of the price transmission of the industrial chain.Thus,to clarify the specific impact and role of breeding,slaughtering and retail in the price transmission of pork industry chain is helpful to accurately master the rule of pork price fluctuations.