能源价格、能源消费与能源强度的关系研究

Study on the relationship among energy price,energy consumption and energy intensity

我国"碳中和"目标的提出,有利于促进我国能源和经济系统加快转型升级,因而对能源问题的研究颇有意义。本文探讨了能源消费状况,构建了以能源价格为核心的能源消费理论分析框架,研究表明:能源价格对能源强度有抑制作用,但能源价格的滞后影响并不显著。通过引入人口增长因素后发现,人口增长的累积效应存在,它的发展不利于能源强度下降,但有利于增加劳动力,促进经济发展。外贸依存度虽然正向提升能源强度,但近年来它总体呈下降趋势,对能源强度的正向影响程度减弱;能源结构对能源强度起明显抑制作用,表明煤炭消费需求的相对下降和其他能源(如天然气、水电—核电—风电等)消费需求的上升有利于缓解我国长期以来的煤炭依赖、能源供应紧张以及环境压力。

China’s carbon neutral target is conducive to accelerating the transformation and upgrading of China’s energy and economic system,so the study of energy issues is of great significance.This paper discusses the present situation of energy consumption,build the theoretical analysis framework based on energy prices as the core of the energy consumption.The research shows that:Energy prices have a restraining effect on energy intensity,but the lagging effect on energy prices is not significant.By introducing the population growth factor,it is found that the cumulative effect of population growth exists.Its development is not conducive to the decline of energy intensity,but it is conducive to increasing the labor force and promoting economic development.Although the degree of dependence on foreign trade is positively increasing energy intensity,it has shown an overall downward trend in recent years,and its positive impact on energy intensity has weakened;The energy structure has a significant inhibitory effect on energy intensity,indicating that the relative decline in coal consumption demand and the increase in consumption demand for other energy sources(such as natural gas,hydropower-nuclear power-wind power,etc.)are conducive to easing C hina’s long-term coal dependence,energy supply shortage and environmental pressure.