对外贸易促进碳减排效应研究

Research on the Effect of Foreign Trade on Promoting Carbon Emission Reduction

在经济全球化和贸易自由化的背景下,探索对外贸易和碳减排之间的关系及影响机理具有重要意义。本文在构建地理邻接权重矩阵的基础上,运用动态空间杜宾模型、动态面板门限模型实证检验了对外贸易对我国碳排放的空间效应、非线性效应以及异质性效应。结果发现:在空间全局上,我国碳排放呈现出显著的"路径依赖"和"空间溢出"现象;对外贸易对本地和临近地区碳排放存在显著的抑制作用,并具有明显的经济发展水平双门槛效应;不同区域、不同时间节点下的对外贸易对我国碳排放的影响存在显著差异。因此,我国需要着力构建"陆海内外联动、东西双向互济"的全面开放格局,优化区域对外贸易战略,完善差异化发展机制,从而提升对外贸易对碳减排的贡献度。

In the context of economic globalization and trade liberalization, it is of great significance to explore the relationship and impact mechanism between foreign trade and carbon emission reduction. Based on the construction of the geographical adjacency weight matrix, this paper uses the dynamic spatial D urbin model and the dynamic threshold panel model to empirically test the spatial,nonlinear, and heterogeneous effects of foreign trade on China’s carbon emissions. The results found that China’s carbon emissions show significant "path dependence" and "spatial spillover" in the overall space;foreign trade has a significant inhibitory effect on local and neighboring carbon emissions and has an obvious double threshold effect for economic development. There are significant differences in the impact of foreign trade on China’s carbon emissions in different regions and at time nodes. Therefore, China needs to work hard to build a comprehensive opening pattern of "linkages between land and sea, and mutual assistance between east and west",optimize regional foreign trade strategies, and improve differentiated development mechanisms, to increase the contribution of foreign trade to carbon emission reduction.