最低收购价政策对稻米价格波动影响研究——基于省级面板数据的实证分析

Research on the Impact of Minimum Purchase Price Policy on the Fluctuation of Rice Price——Empirical analysis based on provincial panel data

最低收购价政策是我国重要的粮食价格调控手段,分析最低收购价政策对稻米价格波动的影响,对于完善最低收购价政策具有重要意义。本文基于2001-2019年省级面板数据,构建双重差分模型,研究最低收购价政策对稻米价格的影响。实证结果表明:最低收购价政策与稻米价格波动率负相关,有利于降低政策实施区稻米价格波动,且其政策实施区的籼米和粳米价格波动率分别下降9.13%和7.04%;在考虑内生性和采取替换样本、替换地区的稳健性检验后,回归结果仍然稳健。为此,建议继续坚持最低收购价政策,并加大对新型职业农民的培育力度。

The minimum purchase price policy is China’s important grain price control method. Analyzing the impact of the minimum purchase price policy on the fluctuation of rice prices is of great significance for improving the minimum purchase price policy. Based on the provincial panel data from 2001 to 2019, this paper constructs a double difference model to study the impact of the minimum purchase price policy on rice prices. The empirical results show that the minimum purchase price policy is negatively correlated with the volatility of rice prices, which is conducive to reducing the volatility of rice prices in the policy implementation areas, and the price volatility of indica rice and japonica rice in the policy implementation areas decreased by 9.13% and 7.04%, respectively;After considering the endogeneity and adopting the robustness test of replacement samples and replacement regions, the regression results are still robust. To this end, this article recommends that it is necessary to continue adhering to the minimum purchase price policy and increasing efforts to cultivate new types of professional farmers.