碳价对国内民航市场影响研究——基于多情境角度模拟分析

The Impact of Carbon Price on Domestic Civil Aviation Market——Analysis based on multiple contextual perspectives

为鼓励航空运输企业参与国内碳交易、推进绿色发展、促进优化节能减排,研究测度碳减排成本对国内民航企业的影响,具有重要学术价值和实践应用价值。本文首先阐释碳价对民航企业的影响机理,继而,按照碳价和碳成本转嫁水平将碳价变化分为9种情境,重点研究温和情境、激进情境和中间情境三种情境,并构建票价变化、需求量变化测算模型。最后,选取国内旅客运输量较大的738条航线、2812个航班的样本数据代入模型,得出不同情境下碳价对国内民航票价、运输量及其他指标的影响结果。结果表明:温和情境、中间情境、激进情境三种情境下对国内民航运输收入影响均不大。并从节能减排项目实施等方面提出政策建议,旨在对民航企业绿色可持续发展有所裨益。

Studying and measuring the impact of carbon emission cost on domestic civil aviation companies can provide a reference for air transport companies to respond to domestic carbon trading systems and promote the optimization of energy conservation and emission reduction management.This article first clarifies the actual requirements for civil aviation companies to bear carbon prices, and then divides the carbon price changes into 9 scenarios according to the carbon price and carbon cost pass-through levels. The study focuses on three scenarios:mild, aggressive and intermediate.Built the pricing change and demand change calculation model.Finally, the sample data of 738 routes and 2812 flights with the largest domestic passenger traffic volume were selected and substituted into the model to obtain the results of the impact of carbon prices on fares, transportation volume and other indicators of the domestic civil aviation market in different scenarios.The results show that the mild scenario, intermediate scenario,and aggressive scenario have little effect on domestic civil aviation revenue.It also puts forward policy recommendations from management policies and the implementation of energy-saving and emission reduction projects to support the sustainable development of civil aviation and reduce the impact of carbon prices on the domestic civil aviation market.