中国出口贸易增长的动力:种类、数量抑或价格——基于三元边际对中国机械运输设备出口增长的分析

Driving Forces of China’s Export Trade Growth: Type, Quantity or Price——An Analysis of China’s Export Growth of Machinery and Transportation Equipment Based on Ternary Margin

本文利用2000-2017年UN Comtrade数据库中SITC五分位贸易数据,借助三元边际分解方法客观分析了中国向26国出口机械运输设备的扩展边际、数量边际和价格边际。在此基础上运用核密度估计刻画了三元边际动态演进,采用非参数检验对拉动出口增长的边际因素进行统计检验。研究结果表明:中国机械运输设备出口的增长动力主要是靠数量扩张,而扩展边际和价格因素对出口增长的拉动作用较小,贡献微弱,"低价扩张、数量拉动"传统出口模式亟待根本转变。

The Standard International Trade Classification(SITC) trade data in the UN Comtrade Database from2000 to 2017 were used to objectively analyze the expansion margin,quantity margin and price margin of China’s export of machinery and transportation equipment to 26 countries by the decomposition method of ternary margin.On this basis,this paper employedkernal density estimation to depict the dynamic evolution of ternary margin and carried out a non-parametric test to statistically test the marginal factors that drive the growth of export in China.The results show that the growth of China’s export of machinery and transportation equipment is mainly driven by the expansion of quantity,while the expansion margin and the price margin play a small role in driving the growth of export with weak contribution.The traditional export pattern driven by "low-price expansion and large quantity" needs to be fundamentally changed.