我国大中城市住房可支付性评价研究——基于前景理论和VIKOR方法的分析

Research on Evaluation of Housing Affordability in Large and Medium-sized Cities in China——Analysis Based on Prospect Theory and VIKOR Method

本文以我国35个大中城市为研究对象,基于前景理论与VIKOR多属性决策方法,构建了住房可支付性的综合评价模型,结果显示:研究期间济南、合肥、青岛等城市住房可支付性较好,上海、北京、深圳等特大城市的住房可支付性与其他研究基本一致,相对较差。通过与单一VIKOR方法、单一前景理论和常用综合评价方法的对比分析发现,各城市可支付性评价的结果和排名出现变化。基于前景理论和VIKOR多属性决策的方法可以克服单一评价方法的不足,并考虑评价者主观决策的因素,从而提高住房可支付性评价的可靠性,更有利于为决策者提供支持。

This paper takes 35 large and medium-sized cities in China as the research object,and builds a comprehensive evaluation model of housing affordability based on the prospect theory and VIKOR multi-attribute decision-making method.The results show that Jinan,Hefei,Qingdao and other cities have relatively low housing affordability during the study period.housing affordability in megacities such as Shanghai,Beijing,and Shenzhen is basically the same as other studies,and relatively poor.Through a comparative analysis with the single VIKOR method,single prospect theory,and common comprehensive evaluation methods,it is found that the results and rankings of the affordability evaluations of various cities have changed.The method based on the prospect theory and VIKOR multi-attribute decision-making can overcome the shortcomings of a single evaluation method and consider the factors of subjective decision-making by the evaluator,so as to improve the reliability of housing affordability evaluation and help support decision-makers.