房地产价格分化背景下的城市聚类研究

Analysis of city clusters under the background of housing price differentiation

我国各个城市的房地产市场发展程度和模式各异,基于这些特征可将房地产市场划分为不同的类别。本文以2013年6月-2018年12月我国70个大中城市的房价作为样本,采用非线性时变因子模型,研究区域房价的异质收敛特征,得出传统的以经济发展水平和地理位置作为划分房地产市场的方法不能适应当前房地产市场调控的需要;我国70个大中城市的房地产价格存在异质收敛特征,可将其划分为7个收敛子群;地理因素或经济因素不是导致城市房价变动的主导因素。建议政府根据不同子群的房价收敛特征制定货币政策、信贷政策和税收政策,以便各级地方政府据此制定因地制宜的房地产调控政策;放开部分城市的土地限制,建立人地挂钩制度;合理引导房地产开发商有针对性地提高部分城市的住房供给。

In recent years,China’s governments at all levels have implemented regulatory policies on the real estate industry and housing prices,and have achieved a certain degree of success,but some new problems have also emerged.For example,the real estate market in the city is clearly differentiated,and the fluctuations in housing prices are uneven,which is inconsistent with the existing real estate market regional division pattern,and has brought many challenges for the government to regulate the real estate market.This paper takes the housing prices of 70 large and medium-sized cities in China from June 2013 to December 2018 as research sample,and uses the nonlinear time-varying factor model to study the heterogeneous convergence characteristics of regional housing price.The results show thatthe traditional method of dividing the real estate market by economic development level and geographical location is unreasonable;the housing price of 70 large and medium-sized cities in China has heterogeneous convergence characteristics,which can be divided into seven convergent subgroups;Geographical factors or economic factors are not the dominant factors that cause urban housing prices to change.It is recommended that the local governments implement real estate control policies tailored to local conditions;liberalize land restrictions in some cities and establish human-land linked system;guide real estate developers to increase housing supply in some cities in a targeted manner.