人口城镇化与区域经济发展质量对房价的影响研究——以郑州市为例

Study on the influence of population urbanization and regional economic development quality on house price——Take Zhengzhou as an example

随着房地产市场供给侧结构性改革的推进,房地产市场渐趋平稳。本文研究人口城镇化与经济发展质量对郑州市房价的影响,选择郑州市城镇常住人口比重、郑州市经济发展质量的综合得分、郑州市住宅商品房平均价格作为三个变量建立向量自回归模型进行实证分析。研究表明:人口城镇化水平与经济发展质量均会对郑州市房价产生影响,前者的影响程度较小,后者的影响程度较为显著。提高人口城镇化水平,会对郑州市的房价产生长期的积极影响,促进郑州市的房价上涨;提高郑州市经济发展质量,前期会促进房价上涨,但经过短期的过渡之后反而会对郑州市房价产生长期的抑制作用。

With the development of supply side structural reform in the real estate market,the real estate market is becoming more and more stable.This paper studies the impact of population urbanization and the quality of economic development on housing prices in Zhengzhou City,and selects the proportion of permanent residents in Zhengzhou City,the comprehensive score of economic development quality in Zhengzhou City and the average price of residential commercial housing in Zhengzhou City as three variables to establish a vector autoregressive model for empirical analysis.The research shows that the level of population urbanization and the quality of economic development will have an impact on housing prices in Zhengzhou.The former has a small impact,while the latter has a significant impact.To improve the level of population urbanization will have a long-term positive impact on the housing prices of Zhengzhou City,and promote the housing prices of Zhengzhou City;to improve the quality of economic development of Zhengzhou City,it will promote the housing prices in the early stage,but after a short-term transition,it will have a long-term inhibitory effect on the housing prices of Zhengzhou city.