住房价格与经济基本面偏离度研究——基于我国35个大中城市相关数据的分析

Research on the Deviation between House Price and Economic Fundamentals——Analysis Based on data of 35 Chinese Major Cities

本文利用2006-2017年间我国35个大中城市的面板数据,对城市住房价格与经济基本面的关系进行了实证研究。结合房价收入比分析和回归模型分析,发现住房价格与经济基本面之间整体上存在均衡关系,多数城市的住房价格能够得到经济基本面因素的良好支持。但是,以一线城市和厦门为代表的部分城市住房价格过高或上涨过快,无法被基本面因素充分解释。在2015年去库存政策影响下,上述城市住房价格相对经济基本面的偏离进一步扩大。此外,福州、合肥、兰州等城市经济发展水平相对一般、住房价格偏离较大,应该作为"一城一策"背景下"因城施策、分类指导"和落实"房住不炒"定位的重点。

Using the panel data of 35 major cities in China between 2006 and 2017,weempirically investigate the relationship between house price and economic fundamentals.With the analysis based on price-to-income ratio and regression models,we find an equilibrium relationship generally existing between the house price and the economic fundamentals.In most cities,the house prices can be well supported by the economic fundamentals.However,the house prices in some particular cities,including the first-tier cities and Xiamen,are too high or increasing too fast to be fully explained by corresponding fundamental factors.Particularly,the house prices in these cities further diverge from the economic fundamentals after the destocking campaign in 2015.In addition,some cities with relative mediocre development levels,such as Fuzhou,Hefei and Zhengzhou,also show large deviations of house prices.These cities should be the focus of"city-specific policies and category-specific guidance"in the policy background of"one city,one policy".