乡村振兴背景下家庭能源消费研究——基于浙江乡村入户调查数据的分析

Research on household energy consumption under the background of rural revitalization——Based on the analysis of 2017 rural household survey in Zhejiang province

响应十九大乡村振兴战略,乡村家庭积极发展民宿餐饮等家庭特色产业,其发展影响着乡村家庭能源消费,而能源供给的稳定又是特色产业持续发展的必要因素。合理预测未来乡村家庭能源消费趋势对实现乡村振兴战略有较大政策和现实意义。本文从乡村振兴的背景入手,以浙江省为例分析并预测未来乡村家庭能源消费趋势,通过收入情景、设备替代情景进行多情景趋势预测,以期为满足农村地区家庭特色产业能源需求的投资规划提供参考。研究结果表明:浙江乡村家庭未来能源消费增长率约为2.5%,到2030年电力消费占总能源消费的比率预计上升至65.6%。

Implementing the rural revitalization strategy is a major decision made at the 19th national congress of the CPC.On January 2,2018,The State Council released Central Document No.1,namely The opinions of the CPC Central Committee and The State Council on implementing the rural revitalization strategy.To respond to the call of rural revitalization,rural household shaveactively developed Home stay,Catering,SeafoodBreeding,Stir-fryTea,Logistics,Ware housing and other house hold industries,which have promoted rural development and narrowed the urban-rural gap.The development of characteristic industry affects the rural household energy consumption,and the stability of energy supply is the essential factor for the sustainable development of characteristic industry.It is of great policy and practical significance to reasonably predict the energy consumption trend of rural households in the future to realize the rural revitalization strategy.Starting from the background of rural revitalization,this paper takes Zhejiang province as an example to analyze the future energy consumption trend of rural households,and carries out Multi-scenario trend prediction through income scenarios,equipment replacement scenarios,etc.,in order to provide reference for investment planning to meet the energy demand of rural households in characteristic industries.The results show that the future energy consumption growth rate of Zhejiang rural households is about 2.5%,and the proportion of electricity consumption in total energy consumption is expected to rise to 65.6%by 2030.Cleaner forms of energy will be widely used in Zhejiang rural areas.