港口物流需求趋势预测方法研究——基于组合预测模型对重庆港口物流需求趋势分析

Research on Forecasting Method of Port Logistics Demand Trend——Analysis of Chongqing Port Logistics Demand Trend Based on Combined Forecasting Model

港口具有社会经济发展促进效应。我国港口物流业有着巨大的发展潜力广阔的市场空间,港口物流需求预测是港口物流发展规划的重要依据。本文建立了三种单项预测模型,鉴于单项预测模型的局限性,将建立的三种单项预测模型进行组合,运用组合预测方法,以重庆为例,对港口物流需求进行预测。研究发现,组合预测模型稳定性比单项预测模型好,预测结果表明,到2025年期间,重庆港口物流需求将继续保持增长,增速约为9%。本研究对港口物流需求提供了一种有效的建模方法与预测手段,对我国港口物流需求预测具有一定的参考价值。

The port has a socio-economic development promotion effect.China’s port logistics industry has huge market potential and vast market space.Forecasting port logistics demand is an important basis for port logistics development planning.In this paper,three types of single-item forecasting models are established.In view of the limitations of the single-item forecasting models,the three types of single-item forecasting models are combined,and the combined forecasting method is used to take Chongqing as an example to forecast port logistics demand.The study found that the stability of the combined forecasting model is better than that of the single forecasting model.The forecasting results show that by 2025,Chongqing’s port logistics demand will continue to grow,with a growth rate of about 9%.This study provides an effective modeling method and forecasting method for port logistics demand,and has certain reference value for the forecast of port logistics demand in China.