京津冀蔬菜价格波动同步性研究

Research on Synchronization of Vegetable Price Fluctuation in Jing-Jin-Ji Regional

本文聚焦于京津冀地区蔬菜市场价格波动特征及同步性。以京津冀三地鲜菜类居民消费价格指数,以及三地黄瓜、胡萝卜和大白菜三种主要蔬菜的月均批发价为研究对象,利用描述性统计、同步系数法、格兰杰因果检验法,分析京津冀地区蔬菜市场价格的波动特征、空间同步性以及分品种的价格同步性和因果关系。结果表明:京津冀三地的蔬菜总体和单品种价格波动趋势普遍较一致,价格波动的同步性也较高;蔬菜单品种之间的波动趋势较一致,而分品种的价格序列间大部分存在格兰杰因果关系,具有关联性基础。说明不同蔬菜间不仅存在共同的影响因素,相互之间也存在影响关系。

The research focused on the characteristics and synchronization of vegetable market price fluctuations in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region.The consumer price index of fresh vegetables and monthly average wholesale prices of three main vegetables(cucumbers,carrots and chinese cabbage)in the region were researched.Descriptive statistics,synchronization coefficient method and Granger causality test were used to analysis vegetable market price fluctuation characteristics,spatial synchronization and price synchronization and causality.The results showed that:in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region,the overall price fluctuations of vegetables and single varieties were generally consistent,and the price synchronization was also high;The volatility trend of single vegetable varieties was relatively consistent,and most of the single vegetable prices had Granger causality,which had a correlation basis.There were not only common influencing factors among different vegetables,but also influencing relationships among them.