CPI权重、结构性物价上涨与物价感知

Weights of CPI, Structural Inflation and Consumer Price Satisfaction

2019年4月以来,CPI与核心CPI和PPI的走势出现背离,在宏观经济下行压力加大的情形下逆势上扬。分析结果表明,我国总体物价水平的变化,无论是在消费领域还是其它领域,均存在明显的结构性上涨特征,且这种趋势具有长期性。总体物价水平的结构性上涨导致居民价格感知与总体物价水平走势出现偏差,并对宏观经济政策的调整形成了压力和掣肘。消费领域总体价格水平结构性上涨的主要是食品价格变化"高增速、强波动、权重大",深层原因在于居民消费价格指数抽样比例、权重以及调整周期等与居民物价感知偏差。本文建议,理性、客观地认识我国CPI的现实意义,不断提高CPI指数的统计方法的科学性、透明性,加强CPI指数对我国宏观经济的预期引导作用,在制定相关财政政策和价格政策时要重视不同群体的需求价格弹性的差异性。

Since April this year,CPI deviated from the trend of core CPI and PPI,rising against the downward pressure on the economy.The analysis results indicates that the change of China’s overall price level,no matter in the consumption field or other fields,shows obvious structural rising,and presents a long-term structural rise trend.The structural rise of the overall price level leads to the deviation between residents’price perception and the trend of the overall price level,and forms pressure and constraints on the adjustment of macroeconomic policies.The structural rise in the overall price level in the consumer sector is mainly reflected in the"high growth rate,strong volatility and weight relatively large"of food price changes.The underlying reason lies in the deviation between the sample proportion,weight and adjustment cycle of CPI and the perception of consumer prices.This paper suggests that we should rationally and objectively understand the practical significance of China’s CPI,continuously improve the scientificityof the statistical methods of CPI and transparency of CPI,strengthen the expected guiding role of CPI index in China’s economy,and pay attention to the difference of price elasticity of demand of different groups when making relevant fiscal policies and price policies.