欧事研究会成员对一战的观察、分析与预测

The Observation, Analysis and Prediction of the First World War by the Members of the European Affairs Study Group

第一次世界大战爆发后,部分追随黄兴或认同其调和主张的国民党人组成欧事研究会。他们在反对袁世凯复辟帝制的同时,也对一战展开了系统的观察、分析,并指出:一战的导火线是萨拉热窝事件,远因则是同盟国和协约国两大军事集团的形成和对峙;战争的实质是新兴的德意志帝国挑战称霸世界数十年的大英帝国;战争在一年内结束,同盟国胜,延及二年或二年以上则协约国胜;战局的延长将会引发部分交战国的国内革命或殖民地的独立;战后世界格局将由六强变为三强。部分成员还对交战双方的国力做出分析,预言同盟国终将赢得胜利。也有人分析了日本对德宣战的动因,批评北京政府的局部中立政策,对"二十一条",则认为日方所要的主要是前四号,尤其是第二号,第五号实非所急。欧事研究会的一战研究取得了实实在在的成绩。

After the breakout of the First World War,some of the Nationalist Party members following Huang Xing or agreeing with his standpoint of reconciliation in national affairs organized the European Affairs Study Group in 1914.While opposing Yuan Shikai’s restoration of the imperial system,they systematically observed and analyzed the First World War.They thought that the war was sparked by the Sarajevo Incident,but the fundamental reason was the formation of and the conflicts between the two military blocs,the Allied Powers and the Central Powers.They pointed out that this war was actually the challenge of the rising German Empire to the British Empire,which had dominated the world for several decades.They estimated that if the war was ended within a year,the Central Powers would win,but if the war lasted for two years or longer,then the Allied Powers would win.Moreover,they anticipated that the prolongation of the war would trigger revolution or independence of colonies in some of the belligerent nations,and after the war six major powers in the world would reduce to three powers.Some members analyzed the strength of the countries in the two warring blocs and predicted that the Central Powers would eventually win.Others analyzed Japan’s motives for declaring war on Germany and criticized the policy of"partial neutrality"of the Beijing government.In short,the research on the First World War by the European Affairs Study Group had made some substantial results.