中国贸易不确定性的行业关联动态及其对进出口贸易的影响

Industry Correlation Dynamics of China's Trade Uncertainty and Its Influence on Import and Export Trade

本文从行业视角出发测度中国贸易不确定性指数,并在分析其行业关联动态的基础上,进一步运用TVP-VAR模型从贸易规模增长和贸易结构优化两个维度,实证考察了贸易不确定性冲击的影响动态及行业异质性特征。结果表明:(1)中国贸易不确定性存在明显的行业差异,且贸易不确定性冲击的行业间溢出效应具有显著的时变特征,技术密集型行业贸易不确定性的净溢出指数为正而其他行业的均为负;(2)从贸易规模增长的角度来看,资本密集型行业的贸易不确定性对进出口总额增长的负向影响最大,而资源密集型行业贸易不确定性对本行业进出口贸易增长的负向冲击最强;(3)从贸易结构优化的视角来看,技术密集型和劳动密集型行业的贸易不确定性分别对进口和出口贸易结构的负面影响最为显著。这些研究结果为营造稳定的经贸环境、推动贸易结构优化,从而促进中国经济实现更高质量发展提供了有益的经验依据和政策启示。

This article measures China's trade uncertainty index from an industry perspective,and on the basis of analyzing its industry correlation dynamics,further uses the TVP-VAR model to empirically investigate the impact dynamics of trade uncertainty shocks and its characteristics of industry heterogeneity from the two dimensions of trade scale growth and trade structure optimization.The results show that:(1)There are significant industry differences in China's trade uncertainty,and the inter-industry spillover effect of trade uncertainty shocks show significant time-varying characteristics.The net spillover index of trade uncertainty in technologyintensive industries is positive while those in other industries are negative;(2)From the perspective of the trade scale growth,the trade uncertainty of capital-intensive industries has the greatest negative impact on the growth of total imports and exports,while the trade uncertainty of resource-intensive industries has the greatest negative impact on its growth of import and export trade;(3)From the perspective of trade structure optimization,the trade uncertainty of technology-intensive and labor-intensive industries has the most significant negative impact on the import and export trade structures respectively.These research results provide useful empirical basis and policy enlightenment for creating a stable economic and trade environment,promoting the optimization of trade structure,and promoting China's economy to achieve higherquality development.