房价及其惯性的投资牵引分析

Investment Traction Analysis of the Real Estate Price and its Inertia

由于房价长期持续上涨使房价水平处于绝对高位,研究房价是否会受投资放缓的牵引而回落于现阶段的中国经济具有重要意义。IMS-AR模型估计结果显示,房价上涨惯性长期稳定但基础脆弱。近期房价上涨惯性的骤升与房价增速的趋于平缓表明房价泡沫被迫出清的概率增加。从投资角度,TVEC模型估计结果显示,现阶段房地产投资已向上突破门限值,此时房价及房价上涨惯性的当期波动均仅受自身的前期偏离影响,其中,房价波动将平滑式收敛,而房价惯性波动将震荡式收敛,但缺乏确定的长期均衡关系作为靶向路径,收敛过程及新的均衡状态可能是低效率、高成本的。因此,现阶段的政策调控应致力于恢复房价及其惯性与投资及投资结构间的长期均衡关系与短期波动溢出机制,使投资用途结构优化红利的释放成为房价平滑回落、惯性回归理性过程中的有力支撑,以政策换时间、以时间创空间,即以一定的政策成本为代价延缓房价泡沫向临界点逼近,最终通过经济高质量增长的实现与房地产市场长效机制的建立实现对房价泡沫的消化而非刺破。

The long-term continuous rise of house price makes it absolutely high,whether it will be pulled by the investment slowdown and fall back to the current stage of China’s economy is of great significance.The IMS-AR model shows that the house price inertia is stable in the long term but the foundation is fragile.The recent sharp rise in the house price inertia and the slow growth of house prices indicate that the probability of forced liquidation of housing bubble has increased.From the perspective of investment,TVEC model shows that at this stage,the real estate investment has broken through the threshold value upward.At this time,the current fluctuation of house price and its inertia is only affected by its early deviation.Among them,the fluctuation of house price will converge smoothly,while the fluctuation of house price inertia will converge conclusively,but there is no definite long-term equilibrium relationship as the target path,so the convergence process and new equilibrium state can be inefficient and costly.Therefore,the policy regulation at this stage should be devoted to the recovery of the long-term equilibrium relationship and short-term volatility spillover mechanism between the house price with its inertia,and investment with its structure,so that the release of the dividend of the optimization of the structure of investment purposes can become a strong support in the process of the smooth fall of the house price and the regression of the inertia to rationality.It takes policy to change time and create space with time,that is,at the cost of paying a certain policy cost,it delays the price bubble to the critical point.Finally,through the realization of the economic high quality growth and the establishment of the long-term mechanism of the real estate market,we can digest the real estate bubble rather than pierce it.