摘要
With global climate change, population growth,and economic development in the twenty-first century,large cyclonic storm surges may result in devastating effects in some coastal areas of the world. However, due to the deficiency of global data and large-scale modeling efforts, the assessment and mapping of potential storm surge impacts at the global level are limited. In this article,the potential inundated area of global coastal zones is projected using information diffusion theory, based on the historical hourly sea-level observation records from the University of Hawaii Sea Level Center(UHSLC), considering variations in coastal morphology and tropical cyclone tracks. Combined with global demographic and GDP data,population and GDP at risk of storm surge impacts are calculated, mapped, and validated through the comparison with historical losses. The resulting potential impact maps provide a preliminary outlook on risks that may help governments of countries to make storm surge disaster prevention and reduction plans.
基金
Acknowledgments This work was funded by the Chinese National Basic Research Program(973 Program):“Global Change and Environmental Risk Relationships and Adaptability Paradigm”(2012CB955404)
the Innovative Research Group Project of National Natural Science Foundation of China(41321001)
the 111 project“Hazard and Risk Science Base at Beijing Normal University”under Grant B08008,Ministry of Education and State Administration of Foreign Experts Affairs,China.
