脱欧后北爱尔兰地区宗派主义与分离主义的耦合趋势研究

A study on the coupling trend of sectarianism and separatism in Northern Ireland after brexit

英国脱离欧盟不仅是其国际关系的重大转变,同时也将不可避免地影响到其国内关系。脱欧可能会打乱《贝尔法斯特协议》所倡导的渐进式发展的设想,加剧北爱尔兰在政治局势和经济形势上不稳定的可能,在一定程度上破坏支撑北爱尔兰稳定秩序的心理平衡。北爱尔兰地区长期以来一直经历着非常规的治理安排,民族主义者对于持续保持北爱尔兰的特殊政治地位抱有执念,但是为了追求基于狭义的英国民粹主义的脱欧只能忽略或者无视北爱尔兰地区的多数意见。只不过民族主义将其自身附着于对传统和生活方式的捍卫,在经历了反复重新勾画的联合之后仍可以存活下来。尤其是北爱尔兰地区的宗教差异与族群差异的彼此强化,使得民族主义变得越来越宗教,或者说宗派主义越来越民族化,具有深厚历史渊源的两个宗派之间的紧张关系可能将被再次推向激荡。

Britain’s separation from the EU is not only a major change in its international relations,but also an inevitable impact on its domestic relations.Brexit may disrupt the idea of gradual development advocated by the Belfast agreement,aggravate the possibility of instability in the political and economic situation of Northern Ireland,and to some extent destroy the psychological balance supporting the stable order of Northern Ireland.Northern Ireland has been experiencing unconventional governance arrangements for a long time.Nationalists hold a strong belief in maintaining the special political status of NorthernIreland.However,in order to pursue brexit based on narrow sense British populism,they can only ignore or ignore the majority opinion of Northern Ireland.But nationalism attaches itself to the defense of tradition and life style,and can survive after repeated re sketching of the union.In particular,the religious and ethnic differences in Northern Ireland have strengthened each other,making nationalism more and more religious,or sectarianism more and more nationalized.The tense relationship between the two sects with deep historical originsmay be pushed to agitation again.