高比例可再生能源接入下的电力系统规划研究

Power system planning with a high share of renewable energy

可再生能源是实现能源转型和可持续发展的关键.然而,高比例可再生能源接入下的电力系统所面临的间歇性、波动性、以及不确定性远高于当前水平,电力供应体系的经济稳定运行遭遇巨大挑战.本研究将电力系统短期经济调度与长期产能扩张规划相结合,通过聚类和情景树技术引入可再生能源的不确定性,建立高时空分辨的电力系统随机优化模型,旨在揭示电力系统如何通过电源、电网、储能等措施的协同优化经济有效地接纳高比例可再生能源.研究结果表明,不同区域在应对风、光间歇性和不确定性方面的主要措施是有显著差异的,电力系统需协同优化风、光、煤产业布局,强化跨区消纳和调峰能力,发挥电源、电网、储能的互补优势,同时避免技术锁定效应.

Renewable energy is the key to achieving energy transition and sustainable development.However,the intermittency,volatility,and uncertainty faced by the power system with a high share of renewable access are much higher than the current level,and the economic and stable operation of the power supply system encounters huge challenges.This paper combines the short-term power economic dispatch with the long-term capacity expansion and introduces the uncertainty of renewables through clustering and scenario tree technology.Furthermore,it establishes a power system stochastic optimization model with temporally and spatially high resolution,aiming to reveal how the power system can economically and efficiently absorb a high share of renewables through the coordinated optimization of power generation,transmission,and storage.The results show that there are significant differences in the appropriate measures to deal with the intermittency and uncertainty in different regions.The power system needs to coordinately optimize the layout of the wind,solar,and coal industries,strengthen the ability of inter-regional peak regulation,and utilize the complementary advantages among generation,transmission,and storage while avoiding technology lock-in effects.