奈特不确定性下的动态价格情绪:基于事件相关电位的研究

Dynamic Price Affect under Knightian Uncertainty:An Event-related Potential Study

随着学科的整合和技术的发展,情绪研究在神经科学领域日益重要。奈特不确定性是指消费者用主观信念而不是客观概率估计未来购买结果,处于不完美的信息状态。随着市场新定价机制的出现,消费者在购买产品时大多处于信息不完美的状态,总是做出不确定的决策。但由于人们获取和处理信息的能力、时间和精力有限,往往在决策中采取情绪启发式判断。基于感知评估理论,应用事件相关电位技术记录贝叶斯更新和预测惊喜的脑波成分,采用Brain Products公司生产的64导的Ag/AgCI电极帽记录相应的脑电,电极位置分布遵照国际10-20系统;选择晚期正电位表示情绪唤醒度,设计一个行为价格形成的贝叶斯学习脑电实验,模拟贝叶斯更新和预测惊喜的动态过程,将不确定性产品质量信息与感知价格水平相结合,探讨这些因素随着信息的累积对消费者价格情绪的影响。研究结果表明,不确定性产品质量信息扩大了感知高价格的消极情绪。具体来说,与感知低价格相比,不确定性和确定性信息下的感知高价格引起晚期正电位显著的振幅;与确定性信息相比,不确定性信息下感知价格水平引发的晚期正电位幅度也明显更大。随着信息的累积,情绪在价格判断(即支付意愿)中贝叶斯更新阶段比预测惊喜阶段的渗透程度低,支付意愿与晚期正电位振幅偏转成正向关系,高水平的支付意愿引发更大的偏转幅度。研究结果可以帮助零售商和市场营销人员更好地创新定价机制,从而有意识地避免消费者的消极情绪,提高消费者的支付意愿水平。此外,这种研究方法也可以用来检验各种其他产品或服务环境中的价格判断形成过程,提高购买转化率。

Knightian uncertainty dictates that,rather than objective probabilities,subjective beliefs are the main factor for the consumers to perceive the purchase results in a state of asymmetric information.With the emergence of new market pricing mechanisms,consumers often purchase products with asymmetric information that frequently leads to the making of uncertain decisions.Moreover,due to their limited ability,time,and energy in obtaining and processing information,consumers are usually inclined to heuristic judgments in decision-making.With the integration of disciplines and development in technology,research on emotion,such as the study of emotional process in decision-making,by using event-related potential(ERP)technology,has become essential in neuroscience.In this study,ERP technology is used to record Bayesian updating and brain wave components of surprise predicting.The 64-channel Ag/AgCI electrode cap produced by Brain Products is used to record the corresponding EEG,with electrodes arranged in the international 10-20 system.The late positive potential is used to express the degree of emotional arousal,and a Bayesian learning EEG experiment of behavioral price formation is designed to simulate the dynamic process of Bayesian updating and surprise predicting.Uncertain product quality information and price perception levels are combined to explore the impact of these factors on consumers′emotion of perceiving prices as they accumulate information.The ERP analysis shows that uncertain product quality information increases the negative emotion of perceiving high prices.Specifically,compared with low price perception,high price perception with uncertain and assured information causes a significant amplitude of the late positive potential.Compared with assured information,the price perception levels with uncertain information also causes a higher amplitude of the late positive potential.As information accumulates,emotion permeates the price judgment or willingness to pay(WTP)less in the Bayesian updating phase than in the surprise predicting phase.The WTP is positively correlated with the deflection of the late positive potential amplitude and high levels of WTP can trigger a higher deflection amplitude.The results of this study can help retailers and marketers to create pricing system,avoid stirring the negative emotion of consumers and improve their WTP.In addition,this research method can also be used to examine the process of forming price judgments in various products or services and increase the purchase conversion rate.