风险视角下的经济政策不确定性与企业成本粘性研究

Research on Economic Policy Uncertainty and Firm Cost Stickiness from the Perspective of Risk

经济政策不确定性既会影响宏观经济和社会发展,也会对微观企业行为决策产生显著影响。相对于发达国家,处于转型期的中国面临的经济政策不确定性尤为突出。已有研究成果集中于对经济政策不确定性与企业投资、融资和现金持有关系的探讨,忽略了经济政策不确定性是否以及如何影响企业成本粘性。企业成本决策是企业管理的重要内容,也是影响企业投入、产出和经济效益的关键因素。在此背景下,基于构建风险和不确定性分析框架,以1999年至2016年中国沪、深两市A股上市非金融企业为样本,运用Stata 14.0和多元回归分析方法,系统探讨并检验经济政策不确定性对企业成本粘性的影响,并进一步考察企业战略类型和财务弹性对经济政策不确定性与成本粘性之间关系的调节效应。研究结果表明,经济政策不确定性的增加导致企业成本粘性显著下降,说明面临高不确定性时,企业采用风险对冲策略规避潜在危机。进一步研究发现,当面临外部经济政策不确定性增加时,不同风险特征的企业表现出差异化的成本决策行为。不同战略类型的企业具有差异化的发展模式和风险态度,在战略进取型企业样本组中,经济政策不确定性对企业成本粘性没有明显作用;而当企业财务弹性较低时,经济政策不确定性与企业成本粘性的负向关系更加显著。更换变量测量方法、控制其他影响因素后,研究结果仍然成立。研究结果证实了经济政策不确定性对企业成本性态的影响,表明成本粘性是企业考虑外部环境不确定性、企业自身战略定位和财务弹性情况的综合决策结果;进一步加深了对经济政策不确定性与企业决策行为关系的理解,丰富了成本粘性动因识别的研究,为企业推进成本管理决策等提供理论依据和实践参考。

Economic policy uncertainty not only affects the macro economy and social development,but also has a significant impact on firm behavior at micro-level.Compared to developed countries,China is in the period of transition and is faced with a more prominent level of economic policy uncertainty.Previous studies mainly focus on the discussion about the effect of economic policy uncertainty on corporate investment,financing and cash holding policies.However,whether and how economic policy uncertainty affects firm cost stickiness is overlooked.Cost decision is one of the important contents of business management,and it is also the key factor that affects firm′s input,output and economic benefit.In this context,based on the risk and uncertainty analysis framework,this study takes Shanghai and Shenzhen A-share listed non-financial companies from 1999 to 2016 as a sample,and uses Stata 14.0 and multiple regression analysis method to systematically examine the effect of economic policy uncertainty on firm cost stickiness.Moreover,we further examine the moderating effect of corporate strategy types and financial flexibility on the relationship between economic policy uncertainty and cost stickiness.The result indicates that high level of economic policy uncertainty reduces firm cost stickiness.To be specific,faced with systematically risk which is unavoidable,firms will adopt the risk hedging strategy to avoid potential crisis,resulting in lower cost stickiness.Further,the above relationship is closely related to firm strategy and financial flexibility.For firms classified as prospectors,economic policy uncertainty does not reduce cost stickiness.Meanwhile,the negative effect of economic policy uncertainty on cost stickiness is more pronounced in the group with less financial flexibility.After changing the measures of key variables and controlling for other possible influencing factors,the conclusion still holds.The research explores the mechanism between the macroeconomic policy uncertainty and firm decision behavior,indicating that cost stickiness is a comprehensive decision making which reflects firm′s external uncertainty,internal strategy and financial status.In conclusion,this paper enriches the related studies on the consequences of economic policy uncertainty.Moreover,it also broadens the determinants of firm decision behavior.The conclusion drawn in this study provides theoretical basis and practical reference for firms to better implement and promote cost management decisions.