20世纪50年代以来登陆中国热带气旋的变化特征分析

Variations of landfalling tropical cyclones in China since the 1950s

基于1951—2017年西北太平洋热带气旋路径资料,利用趋势分析、R/S分析以及周期分析等方法对近67年来登陆中国热带气旋的个数、频次、强度以及登陆位置等热带气旋活动特征进行深入分析,结果表明:(1)近67年登陆中国热带气旋的个数和频次均呈下降趋势,下降幅度分别为0.003个/a和0.008次/a,但变化趋势均不显著,未来一段时期热带气旋登陆个数、频次将呈缓慢增加趋势。(2) 6—10月是热带气旋发生和登陆的高频期,其中,8月份热带气旋的发生次数和登陆中国的次数均最多。(3)历年最低中心气压、平均中心气压均呈增加趋势,且最低中心气压通过了M-K显著性检验;热带气旋登陆强度总体呈减弱趋势,且未来一段时期将继续呈减弱趋势,但高强度热带气旋呈显著增加趋势。(4)广东、台湾、海南、福建和浙江是热带气旋的主要登陆地;热带气旋的登陆位置呈向东、向北偏移趋势,且未来时期该偏移趋势仍将持续。利用热带气旋路径数据分析1951—2017年登陆中国热带气旋的数量、强度等变化,旨在深入认识影响中国的热带气旋活动的特征及规律,为热带气旋的预报、预警及防灾减灾工作等提供科学参考。

Based on track data of tropical cyclones in the Northwest Pacific from 1951 to 2017, the characteristics of landfalling tropical cyclones(TCs) in China over the last 67 years, such as number, frequency, intensity, and landfalling location, were statistically analyzed using trend analysis, run-test analysis, and periodic analysis. The results showed that there were slight declines in the number and frequencies of landfalling TCs from 1951 to 2017, the dropping magnitude were 0.003 a–1 and 0.008 a–1 respectively, however, this decreasing trend was not significant in the test of M-K significance. In the future, the number of landfalling TCs is expected to slowly increase. The period in which landfalling TCs frequently occurred was from June to October, and this was especially observed in August. The lowest and mean central pressures showed an increasing trend in previous years, and the lowest central pressure passed the M-K significance test. The landfalling intensity of TCs generally showed a decreasing trend and they would continue to show a decreasing trend in the near future;however, high-intensity landfalling TCs showed a considerably increasing trend. The locations of landfalling TCs were mainly in Guangdong, Taiwan, Fujian, Hainan, and Zhejiang. The landfalling locations of TCs display a trend of eastward and northward shift, and this tendency will continue in the future. In this paper, the number and intensity of landfalling TCs in China from 1951 to 2017 were analyzed using direct track data of tropical cyclones. The purpose was to gain an in-depth understanding of the the characteristics and frequencies of tropical cyclones affecting China and to provide scientific references for the prediction, early warning, disaster prevention, and mitigation of TCs.