海岸带区域可持续发展综合评价及障碍因子诊断——以浙江省为例

Comprehensive evaluation of coastal zone and identification of obstacle factors to its sustainable development: Zhejiang as a case

为促进海岸带区域持续发展,以层次分析法和熵权法进行主客观权重赋值,运用灰色关联-TOPSIS模型、障碍因子诊断模型测度浙江省海岸带区域可持续发展综合水平在2010—2016年的演变轨迹和主要障碍因子。结果表明:(1)2010—2016年内浙江省海岸带区域贴近度由0.484发展到0.576,经济功能和调适功能的演变轨迹基本趋同,生态功能和社会功能分别经过了平缓增加—平缓下降、波动上升—下降—小幅上升的演化过程;(2)以2014年为界由较低持续性状态跨入中等持续性发展状态;(3)障碍因子主要集中于生态功能和调适功能层面。对浙江省海岸带区域可持续发展路径纠偏,要改变发展理念,强化海洋环境调适,提升生态系统的自组织修复和他组织调控能力。

In order to promote the sustainable development of coastal zone,the subjective and objective weights were assigned with analytic hierarchy process(AHP)and entropy weight methods,and the evolutionary trajectory and main obstacle factors of the comprehensive level of sustainable development of coastal zone along Zhejiang Province from 2010 to 2016 were measured using the grey correlative relationship TOPSIS and the obstacle factor diagnosis models.From 2010 to 2016,the closeness degree of coastal zone along Zhejiang Province increased from 0.484 to 0.576.The evolutionary trajectory of economic and adjustment functions basically converged,and the evolutionary process of ecological and social functions gently increased first,and then declined and fluctuated in a rising–declining-slightly increasing manner.The obstacle factors were mainly directed to the ecological function and the adjustment function,indicating that the sustainability has shifted from a low to a medium state.Such division was observed in 2014.To rectify the deviation of sustainable development of the coastal zone alomg Zhejiang Province,the development concept should be changed,the adjustment of marine environment should be strengthened,and the ability of self-organizing restoration and other organization regulation of ecosystem should be enhanced.