基于SEER数据库分析成人原发性小脑胶质母细胞瘤的预后影响因素

Analysis of prognostic factors in adult primary cerebellar glioblastoma based on SEER database

目的评估影响成人原发性小脑胶质母细胞瘤的预后因素。方法利用监测、流行病学和最终结果(Surveillance,Epidemiology,and End Results,SEER)数据库收集1998~2018年期间登记的成人小脑胶质母细胞瘤患者。筛选临床资料后进行单因素Cox回归分析和多因素Cox回归分析,绘制Kaplan-Meier生存曲线,确定具有显著预测意义的变量。构建列线图预测成人原发性小脑胶质母细胞瘤患者的生存预后。使用C-指数和校准曲线对模型的可靠性和准确性进行评估。结果筛选出年龄、放射治疗和化疗3个变量并构建了6、12、36个月总体生存率的列线图。计算C指数为0.811(0.786~0.837),构建校准曲线后证实该列线图的实际观察值和预测值具有良好的一致性。结论年龄、放射治疗和化疗对成人原发性小脑胶质母细胞瘤患者的预后具有预测作用。

Objective To assess prognostic factors affecting primary cerebellar glioblastoma in adults.Methods The Surveillance,Epidemiology,and End Results(SEER)database was used to collect adult glioblastoma patients with cerebellar glioblastoma registered between 1998 and 2018.After the screening of clinical data,univariate Cox regression analysis and multivariate Cox regression analysis were performed,and Kaplan-Meier survival curve was drawn to further determine variables with significant predictive significance.A nomogram was then constructed to predict the survival prognosis of adult patients with primary cerebellar glioblastoma.Finally,the reliability and accuracy of the model were evaluated using the C-index and the calibration curve.Results The three variables of age,radiation therapy and chemotherapy were screened and a nomogram of overall survival at 6,12 and 36 months were constructed.The C-index was calculated to be 0.811(0.786~0.837),and the construction of calibration curves confirmed the good agreement between the actual observed and predicted values of this nomogram.Conclusion Age,radiation therapy and chemotherapy are predictive of prognosis in adult patients with primary cerebellar glioblastoma.