财政政策与逆周期调控成效——基于广义财政刺激力度视角

Fiscal Policy and Countercyclical Regulation Based on Generalized Fiscal Impulse

本文使用IMF的计算方法并结合中国实际财政状况计算了广义财政刺激力度指标。然后,使用2007年至2018年广义财政刺激力度、货币增速、通货膨胀率、经济增速季度数据构建了结构向量自回归模型(SVAR),并对财政政策的调控效果进行了检验。相较狭义赤字率,广义财政刺激力度既剔除了财政自动稳定器这一周期性成分,又拓宽了计算口径。结果表明:广义财政刺激力度发挥逆周期调控作用,而使用狭义赤字率进行研究,会得到相反的结果,主因存在测量口径偏差和内生性问题,以上结论在考虑了系统可能具有的时变特征后依然稳健。尽管货币政策也可作为逆周期调控的工具,但政策空间有限,我们建议未来财政政策积极可为。

Considering China’s actual fiscal situation,we calculate generalized fiscal impulse indicator(GFI)based on IMF’s method.Then,we construct a structural vector autoregressive model(SVAR)and test regulatory effect of fiscal policy by using the quarterly data(from 1 st quarter of 2007 to 4 th quarter of 2017)of GFI,currency,price,and total output.Compared with fiscal deficit rate,the GFI eliminates the cyclical part of the broader fiscal revenue and expenditure.The results show that the GFI plays a counter-cyclical regulation role,while the fiscal deficit rate has an opposite effect,the cause of which lies in different calculation baseline and endogeneity.The conclusion above still remains robust in consideration with the probable time-varying characteristic of structural system.Although monetary policy can also be used as a tool for countercyclical regulation,there is limited space for monetary policy;therefore,we suggest that the fiscal policy serve as a better regulation tool in the future.