中等收入陷阱跨越机制分析——需求规模与技术进步

An Analysis of the Mechanism of Getting Past the Middle Income Trap from the View of Demand Scale and Technological Progress

自中等收入陷阱一词被提出以来,其产生原因及跨越机制尚无确定性结论。本文从技术进步角度出发,通过对不发达国家独特的技术进步过程进行重新阶段划分,对中等收入陷阱的产生原因进行了理论分析。结果显示,从转移性技术进步阶段向替代性技术进步阶段的过渡是中等收入陷阱产生的时机,技术进步方式及需求规模的变化是其产生的主要原因。而就其跨越而言,首先本国需求规模的大小将决定其自主研发的激励,需求规模越大,自主研发激励越强。其次,即使本国需求规模大小足以支撑其自主研发,在人口均摊的前提下,只有自主研发强度达到一定水平时,该国才能跨越中等收入陷阱,也即自主研发强度对人均收入具有门限效应。根据我国2009年-2017年三十个省份的面板数据分别建立固定效应面板模型及面板门限模型,本文实证部分证明了相关假说,且自主研发强度门限值为3.73%。当自主研发强度小于该值时,将陷入中等收入陷阱。

Since the term"Middle Income Trap"was proposed,there is no definite conclusion on its causes and spanning mechanism.From the perspective of technological progress,this paper makes a theoretical analysis of the causes of the middle-income trap through a new stage division of the technological progress process in the underdeveloped countries.The results show that the transition from the stage of transfer technological progress to the stage of alternative technological progress is the opportunity of the middle-income trap,and the main reason is the change of the mode of technological progress and the scale of demand.In terms of its leapfrogging,first of all,the size of domestic demand will determine the incentive of independent R&D.The larger the demand scale is,the stronger the incentive of independent R&D is.Secondly,even if the size of domestic demand is enough to support its independent R&D,on the premise of population sharing,only when the intensity of independent R&D reaches a certain level can the country cross the middle-income trap.It means the intensity of independent R&D has a threshold effect on per capita income.According to the panel data of 30 provinces in China from 2009 to 2017,the fixed effect panel model and panel threshold model are established respectively.The empirical part of this paper proves the relevant hypotheses,and the threshold value of independent R&D intensity is 3.73%.When the intensity of independent R&D is less than this value,it will fall into the middle-income trap.