1950-2017年上海经济增长中的劳动结构效应

The Labor Structural Effect on Shanghai’s Economic Growth during 1950-2017

本文完善劳动结构效应的指数分离方法,对上海建国以来的劳动结构效应进行系统的连续的计算,探讨劳动结构效应的演变规律。文章利用指数的增量分析方法,以及按因素影响比例分解分配共变效应,将劳动结构效应从经济增长中直接分离出来,并讨论变量反向变动时劳动结构效应的具体形式。利用这一方法计算,上海工业化时期劳动结构效应较强,对经济增长的贡献率高达两位数;后工业化时期,劳动结构效应大幅减弱,对经济增长的贡献率降至个位数;逆工业化时期,劳动结构效应为负。研究发现,(1)劳动结构效应是上海经济增长的一个重要来源,快速工业化和后工业化初期尤其显著;(2)劳动结构效应随工业化产生发展,进入后工业化时期逐渐衰减并最终消失,第二产业劳动力比重变化率是决定劳动结构效应的主要因素;(3)劳动结构效应进一步减弱是2008年以来上海潜在经济增长率下滑的重要原因,未来上海仍然存在一定的劳动结构效应。上海劳动结构效应的演变规律对全国具有重要的借鉴意义。

This paper improves the derivation method of the labor structure effect from economic growth and calculates the effect in Shanghai since the founding of PRC to explore the law of its evolution.Firstly,the paper improves the index incremental analysis method by decomposing the covariance effect according to the proportion of the impact of the factors to separate the effect from the economic growth directly,and discusses the specific forms when the variables change reversely.Secondly,calculated by the above method the effect of Shanghai was significant in the period of industrialization and contributed double digit to economic growth;since entering the post industrialization period,the effect was greatly weakened and contributed single digit to economic growth.It is found that:(1)the effect was an important source of economic growth in Shanghai,especially in the stage of rapid industrialization and early stage of post industrialization;(2)the effect is generated and strengthened with industrialization,and decays and disappears in the post industrialization period,and the change rate of labor proportion in the secondary industry is the main factor determining the effect;(3)the effect further weakening is an important reason for the decline of Shanghai’s potential economic growth rate since 2008,and there is still a certain effect in Shanghai in the future.The evolution of the effect in Shanghai is of great significance to the whole country.