中国实践中的就业优先型奥肯模型——兼论奥肯定律在中国的失灵

The Employment-First Okun Model in China——Also on the Failure of Okun’s Law

本研究结合中国的特殊国情创建了一个新的奥肯模型——就业优先型奥肯模型,该模型表明:以积极的就业政策为导向的财政支出结构变动对失业率的决定有着较大影响;稳定和改善失业率水平的优先就业政策引起政府可控部门的工资增长率与失业率之间存在明显的同向变动关系;就业性支出占比提高伴随着工资增长率的下降;政府的就业干预弱化了经济增长对失业率的市场作用机制,导致传统的奥肯定律的失灵。就业优先型奥肯模型的成立为政府干预就业市场提供了有力的实证证据,同时也说明政府增加工资的决策要受到稳定和提高就业水平的目标约束,有利于大力增强财政支出就业功能的经济增长方式都是可以提倡的,不必过分强调经济增长方式的要素密集性质。

This study creates a new Okun model based on China’s national conditions—the employment-first Okun model,which shows that the changes in the fiscal expenditure structure oriented by the active employment policy have a greater impact on the unemployment rate.The employment-first employment policy can cause a clear co-directional relationship between the wage growth rate and the unemployment rate in some sectors.The increase in the proportion of employment expenditure is accompanied by a decline in the growth rate of wages and the government’s intervention in employment weakens the market mechanism of economic growth on the unemployment rate,resulting in the failure of the traditional Okun’s law.The employment-first Okun model provides empirical evidence for government intervention in the job market,and also shows that the government’s decision to increase wages must be constrained by the goal of employment levels,which is conducive to vigorously enhancing the economic growth of the employment function of fiscal expenditures.Any economic growth mode that is conducive to enhancing the employment function of fiscal expenditure can be advocated,and it is not necessary to overemphasize the factor-intensive nature of the economic growth mode.