“一带一路”是不发达国家的债务陷阱吗?——基于政治经济学的分析

Is “the Belt and Road Initiative” a Debt Trap for the Underdeveloped Countries?——An Analysis from the Perspective of Political Economy

为反驳西方政、学界"‘一带一路’是不发达国家债务陷阱"的论断,从政治经济学视角分析不发达国家政府债务的基本特征和本质,指出不发达国家政府债务规模扩大甚至陷入主权债务危机,主要受产业资本"底层竞争"、本国货币低估和非生产性社会总剩余使用方式的影响,本质上是后福特全球资本积累体制的必然产物。"一带一路"沿线国家的经验分析验证了国外资本的投资方式和本国政府债务收入的支出方式是政府债务率的主要影响因素。

To provide counterarguments for the false charge of“debt trap”against“the belt and road initiative”,the paper studied the fundamental features and the nature of the government debt in the underdeveloped countries from the perspective of the political economy.The increase of the debt to GDP ratio and the potential sovereign debt crisis in the major underdeveloped countries were demonstrated as the inevitable result of the post.Fordism capital accumulation system,via the transmitting mechanism of the bottom-racing,undervaluation of the domestic currency,and the non-productive government expenditure.Empirical study showed the most significant influence factors included the form of FDI and the structure of the government debt revenue,rather than the volume of FDI.