资本有机构成与失业率:影响与机制——基于2001-2017年省级面板数据的经验研究

Organic Composition of Capital and Unemployment Rate:Influence and Mechanism—An Empirical Research based on Provincial Panel Data from 2001 to 2017

近年来我国失业问题愈发突出,在这个背景下技术进步对于就业的影响更是引发了广泛讨论。文章基于马克思的资本有机构成理论,将"劳动力需求"引入马克思主义政治经济学的数理模型中发现:工资增长率的变动情况不同,资本有机构成与失业率之间的关系会有所差异。若工资增长率的变动(二阶导数)大于0时,资本有机构成与失业率之间呈"U型"关系;而当其变动小于0时,资本有机构成与失业率之间可能呈"倒U型"关系。利用2001-2017年我国省级面板数据进行实证分析,验证了两者的"倒U型"关系,并求出资本有机构成的临界值为6.7-7.5。模型引入交互项之后"倒U型"关系仍然显著,并得到了产业结构效应及效率提升效应,进行机制分析后得出结论:资本有机构成的提高应分别与产业结构调整、人力资本的提高保持合理的节奏。

In recent years,China’s unemployment problem more and more prominent,where the impact of technological progress on employment has caused widespread discussion.Based on Marx’s theory of organic composition of capital,the introduction of“labor demand”into the mathematical model of political economy reveals that the changes in wage growth rate are different,and the relationship between the organic composition of capital and the unemployment rate will be different:wage growth rate.When the change(second derivative)is greater than 0,there is a“U􀆼shaped”relationship between the organic composition of capital and the unemployment rate;and when the change is less than 0,the organic composition of capital and the unemployment rate may have an“inverted U􀆼type”relationship.Using the empirical analysis of China’s provincial panel data from 2001 to 2017,the“inverted U􀆼shaped”relationship between the two was verified,and the critical capital institution was determined to be 6.7-7.5.After the model introduces the interaction term,the“inverted U􀆼type”relationship is still significant,and the industrial structure effect and efficiency improvement effect of the unemployment rate are obtained.After the mechanism analysis,it is concluded that the improvement of the organic composition of capital should be separately adjusted with the industrial structure and human capital.The improvement keeps a reasonable rhythm.Therefore,at this stage,the government needs to maintain stable growth and stable employment,and take comprehensive measures in employment training,social security and inter􀆼regional resource allocation to alleviate the unemployment problem caused by the improvement of the organic composition of capital.