马克思经济危机预警理论与经济危机预警体系构建

Marx’s Economic Crisis Warning Theory and Construction of Economic Crisis Warning System

经济危机预警理论是经济周期理论的重要组成部分。马克思于19世纪50年代在美国《纽约每日论坛报》等报刊上公开发表40余篇论文,对1857年英国经济危机进行预警和识别研究,这一研究涉及固定资本投资、资本周转期间过长行业投资、价格、投机、汇率、利率、失业率和工资等方面,并且比较准确地预测了当时的经济危机。在当代,世界性经济危机依然频发并带来严重后果,构建经济危机预警和识别体系从而提高经济风险防范和化解能力显得日益迫切。马克思经济危机预警理论为当代经济危机预警指标体系的构建提供了理论依据。

Economic crisis warning theory is an important part of economic cycle theory.Marx published more than 40 papers in New York Daily Tribune from 1850 to 1857 to carry out early warning and identification studies on the British economic crisis in 1857.These studies covered investment in fixed capital,investment in excessively long industries during capital turnover,prices,speculation,exchange rates,interest rates,unemployment rates and wages.These studies more accurately predicted the economic crisis at that time.In modern times,the world economic crisis is still frequent and brings serious consequences.It is particularly urgent to build an economic crisis early warning and identification system and improve the ability to prevent and resolve economic risks.Marx’s economic crisis warning theory provides a theoretical basis for the construction of the system of economic crisis early warning indicators.